Overview

This chapter consists of an assessment of the external and internal environments (the "environmental scan") of the college.  It provides the foundation for projections of future student participation rates, enrollments, occupational trends, new program development, and the development and expansion of student support services.  The environmental scan, therefore, is one of the key elements in the creation of the Educational Master Plan.  It informs consideration of new educational concepts and delivery systems.  Additionally, it provides the basis for projecting future capital construction and staffing needs for Gavilan.

To complete the environmental scan the following agencies, boards, and commissions were consulted or referenced:

• U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census
• California Department of Finance, Economic Research Unit
• California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division
• California Community College Chancellor's Office
• California Post-Secondary Education Commission
• Gilroy Economic Development Commission/Gilroy Chamber of Commerce
• Gavilan College Admissions and Records
• Retirement and Student Housing Market Analysis, Crown Research June, 2006

External Assessment

The following "external factors" have the potential for creating significant impacts on the college over the next decade.  Statewide trends are based on the state's economy, demographic data, input from the state chancellor's office and the potential political impacts that might affect education.  Regional factors and trends will also influence Gavilan College.  Together, these trends have direct bearing on how Gavilan College plans for its future.

Key Statewide Trends

1.   California's economy will slow along with the national economy over the next three to five years as interest rate increases and the slowdown in new housing construction impacts the overall revenues of the state.

Key economic forces for California are housing construction, consumer and government spending. Nationally, housing construction is slowing and in some parts of California (e.g., Sacramento) new housing construction has taken a downturn. Raising interest rates that have fueled cash out refinancing activities over the past years are rising and are expected to severely impact consumer spending. California's revenues were up sharply in FY 2006/07, giving the Legislature an opportunity to increase funding for educational institutions.  As the economy slows, it is reasonable to expect that revenues available to education will taper off or even decline.

New industry bases are being formed such as Bioscience. California is establishing itself as a national center for stem cell research. The Bioscience industry is developing and will continue to see expansion into a wide number of applications.  

Government spending for capital construction is expected to increase as many school districts have passed facility improvement bonds, maiking it possible to build new facilities and renovate existing ones. Construction spending by government agencies will continue to provide a solid source of revenue for many portions of the construction industry within California. 

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• The college can expect relatively stable funding (2-5% growth) from the state over the next three-year period.  Funded growth for the college is 2.10% for the 2006/07 rising to 4.85% in FY 07/08.
• Gavilan College can capitalize on California's emerging employment growth areas (i.e. Bioscience and Construction) through new curriculum development and opportunities.
• The construction trades will need more trained skilled workers.  This could represent an opportunity on the vocational/technical side of the Gavilan College curriculum

2.    Community colleges are experiencing declining enrollments

Although the population of the State of California is continuing to grow statewide, community college enrollments declined by 2% in FY 05/06. Colleges are struggling to maintain enrollment levels and prevent declines in base revenues. Over the next few years colleges will need to reevaluate program offerings to determine what is needed in each community. Colleges need to consider a broader student base than in past years as life-long learning takes on a more prominent role in setting the academic direction of the institution.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• A campus-wide outreach and community public relations program will be necessary to correctly ascertain the needs of the community and to market existing programs for transfer bound students and for life long learners.
• Gavilan College will need to continue to build relationships with the feeder school districts as well as the business community to encourage participation by both groups in Gavilan's educational programming.
• Supporting life-long learning through an older adults' program (age 55 per state definition) will become more important as way to serve more members of an aging population, in addition to traditional 18-24 year old students.

3.   State community colleges are, and will remain, in competition for students.

The notion that community colleges in California serve only the communities that comprise the district is less the case today than ever before. Today's community college student is mobile and discriminating in making choices.  Students will go to the community college that best meets their needs.  This trend will become greater in the future, especially in high-density population areas where the choices for college education are greater.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Reorientation/redirection of the curriculum to make it more attractive to prospective students at a local and regional level.
• Rebalancing of the curriculum to reflect regional as well as local needs.
• Development of "programs of distinction" that separate Gavilan College from other community colleges.
• Continued updating of old equipment and technologies to bring Gavilan College to a position of "being current."
• Development of a strong marketing and public relations program to increase visibility for Gavilan College and awareness of unique offerings.
• Development of unique curriculum and course offerings not available at other area community colleges.

4.   Education will rely on the forging of public/private partnerships as a mutually beneficial method for extending the human, physical, and financial resources of the institution.

Partnerships between state community colleges and the private sector for such things as faculty, commercial development, instructional curriculum, conjunctive facility use, and financial assistance is more common and will continue as an emerging trend into the future. 

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Partnerships with the private sector will extend Gavilan's ability to recruit new faculty, particularly in the advanced technology areas.
• The extension of private partnerships will increase Gavilan's visibility in the region.
• High profile private affiliations will elicit greater community support and student interest.
• Private partnerships could have a compromising effect on Gavilan College.  The special interests of business and industry may have undue influence on Gavilan's curriculum.
• Educational autonomy in decision-making may be compromised.
• Funding from public-private partnerships may be generated for use in enhancing Gavilan's educational programs.

5.   State community colleges will need to operate more efficiently and document performance outcomes.

As the state of California demands greater educational accountability, colleges must hold themselves accountable.  No longer can the community college rely solely on providing an array of courses and degrees while depending fully on the state to provide for needed operational and capital funding.  California community colleges must operate as efficiently as possible and make sound financial as well as academic decisions based upon valid research.

Considerations for Gavilan:
• A new entrepreneurial spirit will create opportunities that did not previously exist at Gavilan College.
• Critical analysis of valid financial and instructional data will promote sound decision-making and greater learning opportunities for students.
• Performance standards and outcome measures will bring out the best in faculty and staff and enhance student success.
• Better courses and a more dynamic curriculum will be offered.
• More revenues and different revenue streams will result to create a stronger college.
• Change and improvement will be constant because faculty and staff will have new standards for assessing effectiveness.
• The challenges in developing valid outcome measures and standards will provide a great opportunity for staff input and teamwork.
• Rapid change may spark resistance from faculty and staff and ultimately turmoil on campus.
• Competition may become a disruptive force, and faculty and staff will only be interested in protecting their own turf.

6.   A greater variety of students will populate the state community college system in both the near and distant future. The hispanic population in California will reach 50% by 2040. A continuing trend of immigrants being attracted to California will cause a shift in the demographics and dramatically increase the demand for educational services that will allow immigrants to become fully involved in their new communities. A special emphasis on language acquisition will be needed to meet the needs of immigrants.

A diverse student body posing a variety of needs is likely to attend community colleges, continuing a trend begun in the past two decades. This group of students includes immigrants, the disabled, elderly, and single parents, as well as those re-entering school, needing English-language acquisition, or working part or full-time.  Gavilan College can expect to see increasing numbers of ethnic minorities in the student body of the future.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Gavilan College can anticipate this trend and reorient its instructional programs and delivery systems to address the needs of all students. Special emphasis will be needed to ensure services are available to those members of the community who need English language skills.
• The college can distinguish itself as a leader in a "bridge" support system and pathway programs that provide students the support they need to reach their goals and in many cases to allow non-native English speakers to obtain a college degree through language acquisition and academic accomplishment. 
• Failure to change curriculum and instructional delivery methods may result in becoming obsolete as an educational provider in today's marketplace.
• Failure to create a "bridge" support system may result in a large segment of students being left without access to higher level academic opportunities.  It may also prevent them from attaining the economic rewards that allow them to keep pace with the rising cost of living in the communities that have been their traditional homes. 

7. Developing a "trained workforce" will be the state's greatest challenge over the next 20 years.

The availability of trained and skilled labor is identified by California industry as the biggest deterrent to growth and expansion in the future.  Industries, particularly those in the advanced technology sector, will grow where a skilled and trained workforce is available.  Most of those who are unemployed, in the urbanized areas of Gavilan's district, lack sufficient skills for today's job market.  This is also true for many of the students who are coming out of the K –12 public school systems.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Greater contact with the private sector will keep Gavilan's curriculum current with the labor needs in the workforce (both professional and technical).
• Specializing in the development of a "flexible curriculum" that is based on the
• teaching and learning of "core educational concepts and principles" will meet the needs in both today's and tomorrow's workplace.
• Development of a "specific curriculum" will meet the needs of industry.
• Ignoring the needs of industry may result in providing education that is not relevant in the future.

8. The Strategic Plan for California' Community College system will be used as a basis for requesting funding from the Legislature.

The California Community College System developed a comprehensive strategic plan to assist in establishing priorities for consideration by all community colleges in the state. Local control for college operations rests with the governing boards of each community college. This allows each college district the ability to determine the right combination of services to meet the specific needs of its community of students.  The California Community Colleges System Strategic Plan dated January 17, 2006 identifies five strategic goals:

1. College Awareness and Access – increase awareness of college as a viable option and enhance access to higher education for growing populations.
2. Student Success and Readiness - promote college readiness and provide the programs and services to enable all students to achieve their educational and career goals.
3. Partnerships for Economic and Workforce Development – strengthen the Colleges' capacity to respond to current and emerging labor market needs and to prepare students to compete in a global economy.
4. System Effectiveness - improve system effectiveness through communication and coordination, regulatory reform and performance measurement.
5. Resource Development - provide enhanced resources and allocation methods to ensure high-quality education for all.

The strategic goals are being used by the State Chancellor's Office as the basis for its funding requests to the State Legislature. This is the first time the community college system has  connected the strategic plan to the budgeting process in support of its annual funding request. The state plans to use resources to assist community colleges in achieving the broader statewide goals. 

Considerations for Gavilan College:
• The Early College High School (ECHS), beginning in fall 2007, will create a direct link to a high school that operates within the facilities of Gavilan College and that brings high school students into the college culture earlier in their lives. The ECHS build awareness among students that college is easily accessible.
• Programs assisting immigrants with language acquisition and basic skills will be necessary. California's decision to increase funding for noncredit programs that serve immigrants is a clear signal that colleges are encouraged to provide noncredit options for these educational offerings.
• Career and workforce training programs are receiving new interest statewide. The state is allocating additional resources to career and technical education in addition to specific funding programs that will assist in training more nurses.
• Gavilan College will need to monitor state initiatives to take advantage of funding that may augment existing programs or assist in developing new educational programs.

Key Regional Factors

1.   Silicon Valley's technology-based businesses will remain strong and lead the region's economy (as well as the state's) for the foreseeable future. Occupational growth and employment opportunities will continue to be vibrant.

Gavilan College's proximity to Silicon Valley,  the center for software development and computer technology.cannot be underestimated as a one-of-a-kind asset and resource.  Silicon Valley continues to lead  the region as well as the state in economic activity, and its future will remain very bright.  Silicon Valley's southerly expansion brings possibilities for Gavilan public/private partnerships are outstanding and should be a high priority.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Linking with Silicon Valley industries will strengthen the transfer and associate degree programs.
• Specific "technician" programs would enhance the vocational/technical curriculum.
• Partnerships would bring greater recognition to Gavilan College as an educational resource in the region.
• Linkages with Silicon Valley could lead to Gavilan's ability to distinguish itself as a regional community college of special significance.
• Gavilan College would be better able to keep current with new and emerging technologies via its Silicon Valley associations.
• Gavilan College would be on the cutting edge of emerging industries (such as biotechnology) that will also call Silicon Valley home.
• Too great a focus on this possibility may limit curriculum and course offerings.
• A risk exists that the curriculum would be heavily influenced by and designed for meeting only the current and immediate needs of the high tech industries.
• Partnerships could put at risk Gavilan's instructional delivery system, one that traditionally has been oriented to the teaching of "core concepts and principles," i.e. the traditional building blocks for education.

2.    San Benito County is expected to experience rapid growth once the waste treatment system is upgraded to handle additional capacity. 

Business development has been at a standstill in Hollister due to a building ,moratorium triggered by sewer treatment limitations. No new construction has occurred within Hollister since 2003 and will not likely resume until 2010 at the earliest.  A large percentage of the population commutes to Silicon Valley for work, and until new businesses are able to expand, it is not expected that this trend will change. A large portion of the economic base continues to be in agriculture. Conversion of agricultural to residential development indicates that agriculture is not lucrative enough to encourage land owners to pursue agricultural uses. New biotechnology applications may generate renewed interest in agri-business operations.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• The opportunity exists to include bioscience and biotechnology applications for agricultural. This could lead to new training programs in biotechnology.
• The demand for educational services resulting from expansion of the population and industry base in San Benito County will create a stronger need for a full campus in San Benito County.
• The failure to meet the demand for increased education and the financial rewards it provides could drive residents out of the community because of the rapidly escalating cost of living.

3.   Planning efforts to build out Coyote Valley to a total population of 80,000 are nearing completion. 

The City of San Jose has been developing the Coyote Valley Specific Plan since late 2002. The plan is likely to be approved by the end of 2006. The plan guidelines include 25,000 new high density housing units that are expected to house a total increase in population of 80,000. Coyote Valley is 18 miles north of the Gilroy campus and is the northern-most part of Gavilan's service area.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• The Gavilan Joint Community College District will have to establish a permanent full campus in the northern-most part of the district. The population served by Gavilan College will increase by nearly 50% when the Coyote Valley build out is complete. The college needs to continue site development activities to ensure a full college campus can be constructed in Coyote Valley.
• A presence in Coyote Valley provides Gavilan College greater opportunities to better serve the needs of its northern area and will allow the college to serve students it has historically lost to colleges north of Morgan Hill.
• The build out of a new campus will require substantial state funding. The full build out is likely to take 20 to 30 years. Intermediary steps are needed to ensure facilities are available to meet the growing population within the service area.

4.   The demographic data for the region suggests that the number of students needing English-language acquisition will increase.

Students needing English-language acquisition will be prevalent at Gavilan College and need to be considered when developing  curricular offerings. Noncredit level courses in English and Basic Skills will be a key offering if Gavilan College is to meet the needs of the residents within its communities.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• English language acquisition courses will need to be widely available throughout the comunity so that people with little or no English language ability will be able to master English before entering a career or transfer track program.
• Gavilan College can excel as a provider of "bridge" support systems to transfer and vocational/technical level education.
• Gavilan College can expand its enrollments in transfer and vocational programs.

5.   The high demand for post-secondary education within the district will continue.

District forecasts for the year 2030 reveal a total adult population of 215,795 by year 2030 compared to 119,313 in year 2005. The increase is 81% over 25 years. The total population within the zip codes served by the college will rise from the 2005 level of 173,561 to 306,048 in 2030; an increase of 76%. High school students continuing on to post-secondary education, students returning for skills or career upgrades, and life-long learners all represent strong potential for enrollment at Gavilan over the next twenty-five years.

Considerations for Gavilan College:
• The development of a long-range plan now will insure a "balanced curriculum" for the future.
• Targeted outreach efforts can be initiated to improve student enrollments, the development of a balanced curriculum, and the overall student body mix.
• Marketing strategies can be developed to position the college in the future.
• Expansion of the re-entry program will better serve the needs of students desiring to begin or complete their college education.
• Competition for students will come from both within and outside the Gavilan College service area. Gavilan has to continuously monitor the activities of the nearby colleges to ensure that district lines are respected and that only Gavilan College is recruiting or offering services in the district.

6.   Affordable education will continue to be a need for the population of the Gavilan Joint Community College District service area.

In 2005, the 60,000 households within the Gavilan College service area reported a healthy household income of $65,000. However, because of growth and increasing housing costs, a significant portion of the population will have difficulty finding affordable housing in close proximity to their work sites. Low cost education available from Gavilan community college will continue to be a competitive advantage and serve as a distinct opportunity to fill an important need for many households.

Considerations for Gavilan College:
• Gavilan College plans to construct residential housing for its traditional student base (18 to 24 year old) and for active older adults  (55+) that participate in the senior adult programs funded by the state. Residential housing will provide a new student life component for those students who are seeking a university style learning experience. Also, the senior housing component will create a following of life long learners who are well connected to the college and its educational mission.
• Gavilan could distinguish itself as the best value for education within 20 miles.
• The college must address the issues of affordability and transportation for students who begin their college education at the Hollister and Morgan Hill sites and continue on to the main Gilroy campus.

7. The trend for students to be working one or more jobs will continue.

The demographic dynamics in the college service area, i.e. a relatively young and rapidly growing population with 38% having household incomes under $50,000, suggest that the current trend of students working at least one job while attending school will increase.

Possible Opportunities for Gavilan:
• The college can become a leader in offering compressed-semester, mini-session courses and creative day/hour course offerings.
• Re-examination and revamping of the traditional instructional and student support formats will serve a more mobile and time-sensitive student.
• The entire instructional delivery system can be reinvented/re-engineered to include more on-line education opportunities for students to meet their needs.
• The need for reinventing the delivery system could launch a program for community outreach, as input from the community would be a prerequisite to change.

8.   Competition for students who might attend Gavilan will be substantial.

Research indicates that the number of educational service providers in Santa Clara and San Benito Counties is substantial.  Within a 30-mile commute, forty-six public and private academic, professional, and technical schools compete with Gavilan College.  The district participation rate indicates that many students travel elsewhere to obtain their education.

Considerations for Gavilan College:
• Competition should be viewed in a positive light, as an opportunity for growth and improvement at Gavilan College.
• Researching the regional competition can assist Gavilan College in its efforts to meet the needs of the students it serves and provide programs that attract students from throughout the region.
• Competition can be the catalyst that leads Gavilan College to distinguish itself from the rest of the field.
• The future could continue a decline in students at Gavilan College as other institutions vie for the same students as Gavilan College.

9.   The Cities of Morgan Hill, Gilroy and Hollister are in the "path of progress" growth corridor that is moving from north to south.

The demographics of the Gavilan Community College District are changing. The population centers of the central and northern regions of Santa Clara are denser than in the past with more people now looking toward Morgan Hill, Gilroy and San Benito County for housing opportunities. San Benito County has the greatest potential growth. Currently there are two large residential developments (Rancho San Benito and Dividend Homes) being proposed in San Benito County.

Considerations for Gavilan College: 
• Increasing population in the Gavilan College District will provide a stronger base for future college operations and expansions.
• Opportunities will exist to attract students from all races and ethnic groups with participation rates equal to their representation in the communities of the district.
• Cultural opportunities provided at the college will have the potential for greater support and awareness.
• New industrial and commercial development will be a by-product of this growth and could serve as springboard for developing Gavilan's instructional programs.
• Growth will create a higher awareness of the area and result in greater competition from educational providers in the Gavilan District and in the region.
• New growth will tax existing public infrastructure to a point that the quality of life in the area is affected and it becomes a less desirable place to live.
• The competition for educational dollars (e.g. local bonds, K-12 public school needs) to meet growth and expansion will be greatly intensified.

Scan of Employment and Economic Data
Snapshot:  California

The Outlook for the California Economy, produced by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE), examines key economic, infrastructural, and political factors that have a significant impact on the state's overall growth and educational system. Data from the 2005-06 report indicate that by the end of 2005, California had experienced moderate economic growth and the largest gain in jobs since 2000:

• By October 2005, the number of jobs in California had increased by 188,000 or 1.3% over 2004 job levels. National job growth increased by 1.4%. San Francisco Bay Area job growth was 1.0%, which represents the largest regional gain in jobs after the loss of 400,000 Silicon Valley jobs between 2001 and 2004.
• Construction jobs accounted for 40% of the 188,000 increase in jobs during 2005.
• Total personal income rose 6.5%, and wage and salary income rose 7.3% during the first six months of 2005.
• The October 2005 unemployment rate was 5.2%, the lowest rate since the 2001 recession.
• In 2005, California's population grew 1.2% to approximately 37.2 million persons.
• State and national projections indicate that economic growth will slow in 2006 and that construction-related activities will diminish unless housing prices are reduced.
• Although the national and state economies are expected to slow in 2006, moderate job growth is expected to continue in Silicon Valley, based on continuing growth of tourism, venture capital, stock option income, rising wages, and population.
• The long-term economic and fiscal health of California will depend, in part, on the immigrant population's ability to acquire an education and participate in the workforce.

Scan of Employment and Economic Data
Snapshot:  Regional

Data from the State of California, Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division provide the following economic outlook for Santa Clara and San Benito Counties:

Santa Clara County

Overview:  Santa Clara County nonfarm wage and salary employment is predicted to grow at an annual rate of less than 1% between 2002 and 2012. The county's growth rate is predicted to be approximately one-half of the state's annual growth rate of 1.8%. A total of 966,000 jobs are predicted for 2012, which represents an increase of 63,500 jobs (7%) for this six-year period. The majority of growth is predicted in four industrial sectors:

Professional and Business Services:  This sector will add 36,200 jobs, with a projected employment of 209,400 and a 20.9% growth increase by 2012. Occupations with the greatest increase in jobs include administrative services, computer system design, and scientific research.

Educational and Health Services:  This sector is predicted to add 17,100 jobs, particularly in the elementary and secondary school, hospital, and nursing occupations. An increase of 14.6%, or 108,200 jobs, is expected by 2012.

Leisure and Hospitality:  An overall increase of 11,000 jobs (16.3%) is expected in this sector, with the greatest number of jobs available in accommodation and food service.

Information:  Publishers of print and software are predicted to provide 5,400 new jobs by 2012. This represents a 15.8% increase and a total of 39,600 jobs by 2012. Within this sector, internet service provider, web search portal, and data processing jobs will increase by 4,900 (41.2%).

Moderate growth or job loss is expected in the following industrial sectors:

Manufacturing:  This sector is predicted to lose 25,700 jobs in computer and electronic product manufacturing by 2012.

Retail Trade:  Retail trade in Santa Clara County will expand to 87,500 jobs. This represents a gain of 3,900 jobs and a 4.7% increase.

Wholesale Trade:  Wholesale trade will contribute 1,800 jobs, a 5% increase resulting in a total of 37,500 jobs for this sector by 2012.

Transportation:  Transportation and warehousing will add 1,400 jobs for a total of 23,600 jobs and a 6.3% increase in jobs from 2002 to 2012. Public utilities are predicted to lose 500 jobs, resulting in a -31.3% loss in jobs from this subdivision of the sector.

Construction:  The construction sub-sector of building and development will grow by 19.5% but will add a moderate number of jobs (2,300), bringing the 2012 total jobs in this sector to 14,100.

San Benito County

Overview: San Benito County nonfarm employment is predicted to increase by 20.7% or 2,690 jobs in the next six years. A total of 15,670 jobs are expected by 2012, for an average annual growth rate of approximately 2%. The majority of growth is predicted in three industrial sectors:

Natural Resources, Mining, Construction:  Employment in this sector is expected to increase by 540 jobs (41.9%), which represents an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%. Construction trades and manufacturing of durable goods will constitute the largest increase of jobs in this sector.

Government:  An increase of 490 state, local and federal government jobs (16.3%) is expected by 2012. Total jobs in this sector are expected to reach 3,490, with 450 jobs in local government.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities:  Within this sector, retail and wholesale trade jobs are expected to increase by 26.3% (680 jobs). Retail trade jobs will increase by 430 during this time period.

Moderate growth is expected in the following industrial sectors:

Leisure and Hospitality:  An increase of 240 jobs (17%) is expected in this sector, with the greatest number of jobs available in food and beverage service.

Professional and Business Services:  This sector will add 200 jobs, with a projected employment of 850 and a 30.8% growth increase by 2012.

Educational and Health Services:  This sector is predicted to add 130 jobs with an increase of 21.3% by 2012.

Environmental Scan
Competitive Educational Providers

The following table has been obtained from the California Employment Development Division's listing of academic, vocational, and technical programs providers within commuting distance of the Gavilan College service area. Providers are primarily from Santa Clara County; this table does not include an exhaustive listing of online vocational and technical training providers. Similar data on San Benito County providers are not available.

San Benito County Extended Area

Additional academic and training resources from San Benito County include:

A Quantitative Overview

The information presented in this section is based on analyses of multiple raw data sources. This quantitative overview provides an illustration of how the college is performing as an educational institution, and identifies opportunities for future growth.

A. Enrollment History

The following table shows the enrollment trends at Gavilan College from the fall semesters of 1999 to 2005.

Source:  Gavilan College and California Community College Chancellor's Office Datamart

Assessment

The net growth over this six-year period indicates an enrollment loss of -6.41% overall. While this period is marked by volatility, enrollment at Gavilan College has shown upward growth over time.

Increased enrollment over the past two years is encouraging and in line with predicted increases based on traditional fluctuations in enrollment. Any increase in enrollment will most likely be influenced by the population and industrial growth predicted for the service area, and Gavilan College's appeal to a spectrum of students with varying interests.

B.  Analysis of Student Enrollment

The majority of students who attend Gavilan College reside in five zip code areas. Table 2 projects 2006 enrollment for students residing within the five primary zip codes based on population change and enrollment from the Fall 2005 semester.

Data Source: Gavilan College and California Community College Chancellor's Office Data;
California Dept of Finance. Enrollment data includes Non-JPA Students only.

Note:  The projections above assume that the present participation rates per zip code areas are, and will remain, constant and that the ratio between the five zip code areas and the remaining zip code areas in the Gavilan District will also remain constant.

Assessment

For the past six years, the five zip code areas presented in Table 2 have produced, on average, 90% of the student body at Gavilan College. Using zip code area growth rates as a baseline, and making the assumption that attraction, recruitment and marketing efforts at Gavilan College will remain the same, a conservative enrollment figure of 5,131 was projected for Fall 2006.

C.  Student-to-Area Participation Rates

The analysis of participation rates provides another perspective on future enrollments for Gavilan College. Participation rates are the number of students for every 1,000 adults in the population area. Table 3 compares participation rates for the top five zip code areas where Gavilan College students reside. Population data were obtained from the California Department of Finance projections for 2005. The statewide community college average participation rate is approximately 65 students per 1,000 population.

Data Source: Gavilan College; California Department of Finance

Assessment

Gavilan's current measures of participation are somewhat difficult to interpret and compare to statewide rates for several reasons. Population estimates by zip code may over- or underestimate the number of adults. The differential effects of student demographics, such as age, race, income, and gender on participation rates within a region may be masked by aggregation at the state level. At the same time, computing regional rates presents methodological problems given the fluidity of community college district boundaries, the attendance of students across service area boundaries, and demographic differences within established community college regions. For example, Gavilan College is considered part of the San Francisco South Bay Region, which also includes Foothill, Deanza, and West Valley colleges. These colleges possess considerably different student demographic and enrollment characteristics than Gavilan College and are located in highly affluent areas of the county. Aggregated south bay regional participation rates are liable to be skewed by the rates at these colleges. Although all of Gavilan's productive zip code areas  show lower rates than the statewide average, the average statewide participation rate has exhibited extreme volatility over time, ranging from 35 to 98, suggesting that participation rates in general are vulnerable to many influences outside of the college environment itself.

A more accurate picture of Gavlian's participation rates may be available in 2007 when the Chancellor's Office institutes "Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges" (ARCC) in response to statute AB 1417. As one of the primary performance indicators in ARCC, college participation rates will be calculated using demographic elements that characterize each college and its economic service area.

D.  Gavilan College Service Area Demographic Data

The following demographic data provide a general profile of the Gavilan College service area, including the area's population, number of households and families, and age and ethnic composition. Data from the 2000 Census are based on the 65 census tracts that comprise the Gavilan College service area (district boundary plus closely surrounding tracts; approximate 20 mile radius). Data for 2006 are conservative and should be interpreted with caution as current estimates do not exist for all demographic measures.

Assessment

The demographic radius surrounding Gavilan College represents the effective service area for the college. This service area is projected to have a population of approximately 199,405 by 2006. Averaging a conservative ratio of only 25 students per one-thousand population (the same ratio as the lowest of the five most productive zip code areas, Morgan Hill), an enrollment of 4,985 would have been projected for the year 2006.

E.  Demographic History of the Five Most Productive Zip Code Areas

The graph below provides an historic reference illustrating population growth within the five most productive zip code areas where 90% of Gavilan's student population reside.

History of Population Growth in Gavilan's Productive Zip Code Areas

Source: U.S. Department of the Census; California Department of Finance

Assessment  Trends in population growth indicate that the five most productive zip code areas within the Gavilan District will continue to grow at a somewhat slower rate than the rates experienced between 1980 and 2000.

F.  Age Composition of Gavilan College Student Body

The following tables provide information on the age distribution of Gavilan College students age across fall semesters for the last six years.

Data Source:Gavilan college;  U.S. Department of the Census

Source: Gavilan College; CCC Chancellor's Office Data Mart. Age is presented for non-JPA students only.

Source: Gavilan College, Chancellor's Office Datamart

Assessment

The distribution of student age has remained relatively stable over the past seven years, with more than 50% of the average enrollment comprised of students aged 25 or younger and a median age ranging between 23 and 25. The greatest number of students attend during the day (Table 8) and Gavilan's enrollment data show that almost half of all students attending courses on campus during the day or during both day and evening, are between the ages of 16 and 25. The percentage of evening-only students increases with the age of the student.

Population projections suggest that among the age groups most likely to attend Gavilan College (i.e., ages 15 through 64) there will be modest growth in proportion to the percentage of the population each age group represents. The exception to this trend is the 45 to 64 year old age group. This group was projected to increase to 21% of the total population in the Gavilan District service area by the year 2004. As skill upgrades are required and the concept of life-long learning is forwarded, this sector of the population may represent a strong marketing and recruitment opportunity for Gavilan College.

Based on the demographic projections for those age groups entering the post-secondary educational market in the next decade, it is unlikely that population increases alone will produce a natural enrollment growth opportunity for Gavilan College.  However, opportunities exist for serving the re-entry student population.

G.  Ethnic Composition of Gavilan Students

Table 9 presents the distribution of student ethnicity across Fall semesters from 1999 to 2005.

Source: Gavilan College. Data for Non-JPA students only; missing data are not displayed.

Assessment

Over the past seven years, Hispanic students have accounted for the highest percentage of student enrollments at Gavilan College. This segment of the student body has increased by approximately 3%. At the same time, the enrollment of white, non-Hispanic students has declined by approximately 5%. All other ethnic enrollments at Gavilan College have remained the same. Combined, the Hispanic and white populations have accounted for an average of 87% of student enrollment over the past seven years. The Hispanic population segment has comprised the greatest percentage of the Gavilan College student body since 1997.

H.  Comparisons of Ethnic Composition

The next set of tables and graphs compare ethnicity of Gavilan College students, the local area population, and high school seniors within Gilroy, Hollister and Morgan Hill. These data utilize population estimates and enrollment statistics for Gavilan's non-JPA students for 2005. Within each table, the "other" category also includes Gavilan College students identified by the "unknown" ethnic category. City population for 2005 is based on current population estimates and 2000 census proportions within city, by ethnicity. In general, enrollment proportions should approximate the population distribution of the area served by the community college.

Tables 10a-c
Demographic Comparisons within Gilroy, Hollister and Morgan Hill

Assessment

Several conclusions may be drawn from demographic comparisons between ethnic compositions of the Gavilan College student body and the local population in Gilroy, Hollister, and Morgan Hill. For all ethnicities except white non-Hispanics, the proportion of Gavilan College students is representative of the adult population within the three largest cities in the college service area. In some cases, notably for Hispanic/Latino students, Gavilan College students over-represent the local population slightly. Among the local high school populations, Gilroy's Hispanic high school population is approximately 5% higher than at Gavilan College and 10% higher than the adult population of the city.

Previous census projections estimated that the Asian population within Gavilan's zip and service area would comprise 7% of the population by 2004. Gavilan College students from Gilroy, Hollister, and Morgan Hill are representive of the growing Asian population in the zip code area, although across the total student body, Asian student representation averages just 5%. While Gavilan's Hispanic/Latino student population has increased over the past seven years, the Public Policy Institute of California projects that by 2011, Hispanics will constitute the largest ethnic group in the state and by 2040 will be a majority. Within the local community, Gavilan College has excellent potential to increase enrollments with students from all races and ethnic groups.

I. Access, Accountability and Performance Profiles

Student academic performance and behavior provide valuable insight on student and college success. Tables 11 through 16 provide a snapshot of student academic behavior that shows stability across the key indicators of success at Gavilan College.